AI’s Great Shakeout: When Winter and Summer Happen Simultaneously
The AI industry has created a fascinating economic paradox: incredible technological progress built on fundamentally broken business models. After three decades working with AI systems—from research labs to enterprise implementations—I’ve observed that we’re heading for a massive market correction that will separate the sustainable from the speculative.
The numbers reveal a stark economic reality. A consumer pays $200 for an AI coding assistant that costs the company $500 in API fees to OpenAI. OpenAI then pays $1,000 to Microsoft for cloud infrastructure, while Microsoft invests $10,000 in NVIDIA GPUs to power the operation. This mathematical impossibility only works because venture capital subsidizes every layer of the value chain.
Unlike previous AI winters driven by fundamental limitations, this correction stems from economic unsustainability while capabilities continue advancing. We are witnessing AI winter for some and AI summer for others simultaneously. Consumer AI applications and venture-funded horizontal platforms will experience devastating winter conditions, while AI infrastructure providers, specialized enterprise applications, and companies with proven regulatory compliance will experience unprecedented growth.
This Darwinian selection event will ultimately strengthen the AI ecosystem by eliminating subsidized business models and establishing sustainable economic foundations. The companies that survive will be those with quantifiable value propositions, regulatory expertise, and enterprise customer focus—transforming AI from a venture-subsidized experiment into economically viable infrastructure.
Continue reading for the complete analysis of winners, losers, and strategic implications…